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08 April 2011

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Afghanistan End Game

 

After almost ten years of war and the spending

of untold blood and treasure, the level of violence in Afghanistan is the highest it’s ever been

 

In the spring of 2010, the Taliban ramped up their activities further. Associated Press reported that [June 7] “was the deadliest day of the year for the international force in Afghanistan with 10 deaths…”

 

Two days later, BBC News reported on “an apparent suicide attack on a wedding party in Kandahar province…in which 40 people were killed. Reports said many of the guests had links to local police or an anti-Taliban militia and that is why they were targeted.”

 

Gordon Coomes

Taliban fighters

 

Afghanistan Exit Strategy

With the military situation getting worse, NATO and its allies face a series of poor choices. In an article in The Globe and Mail (November 3, 2009) Roland Paris of Ottawa’s Centre of International Policy Studies reviewed the possible outcomes of the options available. None of them are pretty and they all boil down to the same thing – how can we get out of this mess?

 

Mr. Paris wrote that the minimum requirement for pulling out is “the existence of an Afghan government capable of maintaining a reasonable degree of security in most areas of the country.”

 

Obama Decides on Afghan Strategy

The challenge is to try to make the least bad decision and the burden of making the call falls mostly on the shoulders of U.S. President Barack Obama.

 

On November 19, 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama gave an interview to CNN. In it he said he is looking for an exit strategy to avoid “a multi-year occupation that won’t serve the interests of the United States.”

 

He said his plan was to be out of Afghanistan by the end of his term in office. Mr. Obama faces re-election in 2012, and if he wins then he will leave office in January 2017.

 

Perhaps, the president is mindful of something Geoffrey Simpson has written in the Globe and Mail (June 9, 2010): “It is estimated by the U.S. military that a successful counter-insurgency takes up to 13 years, if conditions are right.”

 

Troop Surge for Final Push

President Obama’s exit-strategy is to send an additional 30,000 U.S. soldiers into combat for an all-out offensive against the Taliban during the summer of 2010. He would then start withdrawing troops in 2011.

 

Here’s how the President described his tactic in a speech to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point (December 1, 2009):

 

“We must strengthen the capacity of Afghanistan’s security forces and government so that they can take lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s future...

 

“These additional American and international troops will allow us to accelerate handing over responsibility to Afghan forces, and allow us to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011…it will be clear to the Afghan government - and, more importantly, to the Afghan people - that they will ultimately be responsible for their own country.”

 

ISAF Media

 

Are Afghan Security Forces Ready?

The plan hinges on dealing the Taliban a mortal blow and then handing over a pacified country to Afghanistan’s own security forces.

 

But, will Afghanistan’s security apparatus be ready to defend the country after the withdrawal? Mehdi Hasan is a senior editor with The New Statesman and he thinks that outcome is very iffy; he also doesn’t have a very high opinion of Afghan soldiers and police.

 

On December 2, 2009, he wrote “…the Afghan National Army is plagued by desertion: 10,000 recruits have disappeared in recent months. Soldiers are under-equipped and underpaid; some 15 percent of them are thought to be drug addicts.”

 

Hasan adds that the police are corrupt, poorly trained, and have been infiltrated by the Taliban. He writes that 1,500 police were killed by insurgents in 2009 “and around 10,000 policemen are absent without leave.”

 

The ISAF plan is to train and field 240,000 soldiers and 160,000 police. Hasan cites multiple sources that as of the end of 2009 there were only about 50,000 fully trained and good-to-go soldiers in the Afghan National Army.

 

He concludes the allied leadership is being overly optimistic about success in Afghanistan.

 

Sources

“10 NATO Soldiers Killed on Deadliest Day this Year for International Forces in Afghanistan.” Associated Press, June 7, 2010.

“Afghanistan Blast at Kandahar Wedding a Suicide Bomb.” BBC News, June 10, 2010.

“In Afghanistan, One Last Shot.” Roland Paris, Globe and Mail, November 3, 2009.

“Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan.” The White House, December 1, 2009.

“Why Obama’s Troop Surge Won’t Work.” Mehdi Hasan, New Statesman, December 2, 2009.

 

© Canada and the World, April 2011

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BACKGROUND

TO CONFLICT

 

On September 11, 2001, suicide attackers crashed hijacked airliners into targets in the United States, killing almost 3,000 people.

 

The bombers were part of a terrorist organization called al-Qaeda. The group was based in Afghanistan where it received the protection of a Muslim extremist government.

 

In October 2001, a coalition of nations joined the United States in attacking Afghanistan and removing its government from power.

 

Since then, forces under the command of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have been fighting against a stubborn and growing force of guerrillas.

 

 

CANADA AT WAR

 

Canada began its involvement in the Afghanistan war in February 2002 when it sent in a battle group to operate under U.S. Command.

 

In the spring of 2005, Canada moved its forces from the relative calm of Kabul to the hotspot of Kandahar in the south. The Canadians were replacing U.S. troops who had been pulled out and sent to Iraq. The Canadians became part of the NATO force.

 

By the spring of 2006, Canada had about 2,300 troops in the country, but our combat soldiers are to be out of the country by the summer of 2011.

 

The Afghanistan conflict is the longest in Canadian history.

 

CANADA’S LOSSES

 

As of April 8, 2011, CTV News reports that “155 Canadian soldiers have lost their lives. A Canadian diplomat, two Canadian aid workers, and a Canadian journalist have also been killed over the course of the insurgency.”