Canada and the World

        Current Events with a Canadian Perspective

 

Last update

19 November 2010

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What Does a

Failed State Look Like?

 

It looks a lot like this: Mogadishu the capital of what used to be Somalia. While there is no agreed global list of failed states, some are in such obviously bad shape that nobody would argue about their inclusion

 

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has tried to come up with a failed-state definition. By its measure a failed state is characterized by a loss of control of its territory or loss of the monopoly on the legitimate use of force.

 

Others define failure as the lack of ability to make collective decisions, or the capacity to deliver public services.

 

Signs that a state is failing might be the over-importance of the black market, failure to collect taxes, or recurring episodes of large-scale civil disobedience.

 

The definition of a failed state used by the British Department for International Development is broad: “Governments that cannot or will not deliver core functions to the majority of its people, including the poor.” It adds: “The most important functions of the state for poverty reduction are territorial control, safety and security, capacity to manage public resources, delivery of basic services, and the ability to protect and support the ways in which the poorest people sustain themselves.”

 

Failed State Annual List

The Fund for Peace publishes an annual Failed States Index of disastrous countries. In 2009, the list had 39 countries in the “Red Zone;” these are states that the Fund puts in its “Alert” file.

 

The previous year, there were 35 in this group, and 31 the year before that.

 

The roll call for 2009 includes the usual suspects – Afghanistan, Iraq, Democratic Republic of Congo, North Korea, etc. Somalia, Zimbabwe, and Sudan, took the top three spots as the world’s most unstable and failed states.

 

The next group (92 countries) the Fund says is in a “Danger Zone.” The Philippines, Indonesia, Russia, Turkey, and Tunisia are in this category.

 

Thirty-two countries, including Costa Rica, Poland, Barbados, and the United States, are considered to be stable. Only 10 nations are in the coveted “Sustainable” group. Switzerland, Ireland, and Denmark are said to be the most unlikely countries to collapse. They are joined by Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Iceland, and Austria

 

Pakistan and Bangladesh make Biggest Fall

Two countries that lost more security and well-being than any others during the 2007-08 period, used to be one country.

 

Pakistan (formerly West Pakistan) fell from 12th place to ninth and Bangladesh (formerly East Pakistan) dropped to 12th position from 16th. They improved their status by a couple of notches in the 2009 list.

 

The Fund for Peace commented that “Bangladesh took this year’s hardest fall, set off in part by postponed elections, a feuding, deadlocked government, and the imposition of emergency rule that has dragged on for more than 18 months.” On top of that the country was hit by a powerful cyclone in November 2007 that left 1.5 million people homeless.

 

Pakistan has been beset by all manner of political problems. The dictatorial rule of President Pervez Musharraf caused riots and violence all over the country.

 

At the end of 2007, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto returned to the country to try to energize the democracy movement. She was assassinated. During 2008 and 2009, extreme Islamist groups are challenging the rule of Pakistan’s central government.

 

The Fund notes the irony that Pakistan and Bangladesh provide more soldiers to UN peacekeeping missions than almost any other nations.

 

Methodology of Failed States Index

The Fund for Peace uses what it calls its Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) to determine the rankings.

 

It says that “CAST is a flexible model that has the capability to employ a four-step trend-line analysis, consisting of (1) rating 12 social, economic, and political/military indicators; (2) assessing the capabilities of five core state institutions considered essential for sustaining security; (3) identifying idiosyncratic factors and surprises; and (4) placing countries on a conflict map that shows the risk history of countries being analyzed.”

 

By studying more than 30,000 separate media reports and public documents, the CAST system is used to build up a profile of each country. In each of twelve subject areas ratings are established on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 being the lowest intensity (most stable) and 10 being the highest intensity (least stable).

 

Somalia came close to hitting the worst possible score of 120 by getting 114.7. By contrast, Switzerland accumulated only 21.2 points.

 

© Canada and the World, August 2010

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BOTTOM TWENTY

IN ORDER

 

Somalia

Zimbabwe

Sudan

Chad

DR Congo

Iraq

Afghanistan

Central African Republic

Guinea

Pakistan

Ivory Coast

Haiti

Burma

Kenya

Nigeria

Ethiopia

North Korea

Yemen

Bangladesh

East Timor

 

TOP TWENTY

IN ORDER

 

Switzerland

Ireland

Denmark

New Zealand

Australia

Netherlands

Austria

Luxembourg

Canada

Iceland

Japan

Portugal

Belgium

Untied Kingdom

Singapore

United States

France

Germany

Slovenia

Chile