Canada and the World
Current Events with a Canadian Perspective
Last update
03 February 2012
Failed Scientific Predictions
The world of science and technology
is filled with forecasts that have
gone horribly and embarrassingly awry
The futurist, Charles F. Kettering once said: “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.”
Although the future is largely unknowable, and despite a mountain of evidence that predicting it is a mugs game, small armies of prognosticators seem happy to plunge into the darkness to shed illumination.
Predictions in the World of Computing
Fortunately for the amusement of the world, people in the computing business have made many statements about where their industry is headed. Here are a few classic gaffs.
When clunky old ENIAC (below), the world’s first electronic computer, and its 20,000 vacuum tubes was first plugged in 1943, Thomas Watson, the head of IBM, is reputed to have said, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
U.S. Army
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson said this in 1977 when he was head of Digital Equipment.
Microsoft’s Bill Gates is a rich source of failed prophecies; many of them have been collected at silicon.com. Here are a couple: “We will never make a 32 bit operating system” (1980). “Spam will be a thing of the past in two years’ time” (2004).
But, Gordon Moore was remarkably accurate. In a famous article in Electronics Magazine in April 1965 he predicted that the number of transistors squeezed onto a square inch of circuit board would double every two years. So far, Moore’s Law has been spot on, but even Moore predicts it won’t hold true forever.
The Prospect of Flying Bamboozles
The learned scientist Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society of England, declared in 1895 that, “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.”
Eight years later, Orville Wright took a bumpy 12-
In commemorating the centenary of that flight NASA’s Deputy Administrator Frederick Gregory noted in a speech some of the other people whose crystal balls got terribly fogged up.
“No less an authority than the New York Times editorial page had a few choice words for an obscure Massachusetts professor [Dr. Robert Goddard] who dared claim that rockets could fly into outer space.”
In January 1920, The Times huffed and puffed that space flight was not possible and that, “Professor Goddard does not know the relationship between action and reaction. He seems to lack the basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.”
The day after Apollo 11 was launched in July 1969 on its mission to the Moon the
newspaper published a retraction: “Further investigation and experimentation have
confirmed the findings of Isaac Newton in the 17th Century and it is now definitely
established that a rocket can function in a vacuum as well as in an atmosphere. The
Times regrets the error.”
Turns out that for the Times editorialist of 49 years earlier it was in fact rocket science.
More Wildly Inaccurate Predictions
For after-
- “The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon.” Sir John Eric Ericson, Surgeon to Queen Victoria, 1873.
- “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office, 1876.
And, lest we be accused of picking on stuffy old Brits:
- “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry Warner, co-
founder of Warner Brothers, 1927. - “Nuclear-
powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years.” Alex Lewyt, President of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp., in the New York Times, 1955. - “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher, economics professor at Yale University, 1929.
Sources
“In His Own Words: Bill Gates’ Best Quotes.” Tim Ferguson, silicon.com, June 26, 2008.
“Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits.” Gordon E. Moore, Electronics Magazine, April 1965.
“Remarks by NASA Deputy Administrator Gregory
Centennial of Flight Commemoration.”
NASA, December 17, 2003.
“The Best Is yet to Come.” Jurriaan Kamp, Ode Magazine, November 17, 2010.
© Canada and the World, February 2012
All rights reserved
On the 50th anniversary of ENIAC’s creation students at the University of Pennsylvania combined all of the giant computer’s function onto a single silicon chip measuring 7.44 by 5.29 mm. That’s smaller than a finger nail.
OOPS
“There is no hope for the fanciful idea of reaching the Moon because of insurmountable barriers to escaping the Earth’s gravity.” — Forest Ray Moulton, astronomer, 1932.
“There is not the slightest indication that [nuclear energy] will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” —Albert Einstein, 1932.
“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six
months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” — Darryl
F. Zanuck, Head of 20th Century-
“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out,” said the Decca Recording Company about a group called the Beatles in 1962.
FEARLESS PREDICTIONS YET TO BE PROVEN WRONG
2015 – The genetic roots of all diseases will have been identified.
2016 – The holographic telephone projects a life-
2017 – Human beings land on Mars.
2020 – Flying-
2022 – Fetuses, conceived in vitro, will mature to full term outside the uterus in an artificial incubator.
2025 – Computers will be wired directly into human brains and will be able to recognize and respond to thoughts.
2030 – After developing artificial lungs, livers, and kidneys, doctors will create artificial limbs and fully functional artificial eyes.
2030 – Human hibernation is used for the first time in long space flights.
2040 – Nuclear fusion is harnessed to generate electricity.
2044 – A permanent colony is established on Mars.